US Mid-Terms - Obama's Nadir or his Saviour?

It was not long ago that I asked the question on this blog, what went wrong for Obama? That was September 5th and now, almost 2 months later, the mid-terms are upon us.

Obama's hopes look as bleak now as they did then. For the reasons that I mentioned in that earlier post, it isn't really surprising.

However, I couldn't help but notice a comment that I made, that if as expected, the results go against the Democrats, then to quote Bachman-Turner Overdrive and to paraphrase D:ream, 'You ain't seen nothing yet' because 'Things can only get worse'.

Hope for Obama?

I hold by my belief that the Democrats should just narrowly hold on to the Senate but are unfortunately likely to lose the House.

But having read Rupert Cornwell's front page piece in yesterday's Independent, perhaps I should not be so pessimistic, even if this scenario is played out.

Now, Rupert Cornwell is one of the many reasons why I read The Independent. The paper has some excellent commentators and Rupert, with his wry but keen observational eye on north American politics and life in general, always delivers with his incisive comment.

He made the valid point yesterday that if Obama does lose control of Congress, it may not be the disaster that it looks at present. Of course, if the 'Tea Party' contingent pull the Republicans in the House of Representatives further to the right, then we could have a complete and utter dead-lock.

But having said that, running the House would suddenly give the Republicans responsibility. They won't suddenly be able to play the obstructionist card which they have done so effectively (and to America's great damage) ovet the past 2 years. If they did, then they should suffer at the hands of the electorate in 2 years time.

The Clinton Experience

I mentioned it in my earlier blog post and Rupert Cornwell also alluded to the Bill Clinton experience is such a circumstance.

Clinton went from seeing a Democratic control of both Houses of Congress evaporate within 2 years of his election as Newt Gingrich's Republicans swept the board in 1994. Yet it didn't play against Clinton's chances when his re-election came around in 1996.

Clinton moved to the centre and worked constructively with the new Congress and it was to his credit. Suddenly, he was not soley to blame for the country's ills. The 'Republican Congress' also had to take it's fair share of the blame for the nation's discontent.

Republican intrasigence whilst leading the House will not play in their favour. At least it shouldn't do.

The Mid-Terms - Obama's Nadir or his Saviour?

So perhaps, losing outright control of Congree might make it easier for the Democrats to share the blame in the years ahead and help Obama in his re-election in 2012.

Having said that, it goes without saying that I'd much prefer the Democrats to retain overall control of Congress. No doubt I'll report back when my predictions have been blown apart this coming week.