Week One: Yes, Virginia, There Is A Season

Unless you live under a rock, you're well aware that there was way too much angst this season about a lockout canceling the NFL season. When I say too much angst, I don't mean because angst would be an inappropriate response. To be sure, angst, is a mild way of putting how the sports world would react if the NFL season were actually imperiled, but to any rational, thinking person, there was never really a chance that this would happen. The differences in CBA negotiation were not big enough to warrant it, and there was simply too much money to be lost if the sides didn't make an agreement.

I haven't read the agreement yet, nor will I, truth be told, but I'm fairly certain there's a clause in it to prevent the kinds of uniforms Boise State, Georgia and (holy crap on a stick) Maryland wore this weekend. Now, Boise State's giant Bronco helmet logo actually isn't half bad, and these duds weren't nearly as horrendous as the weird gray and blue ones they wore against Tetris-ified Virginia Tech last year. As for the Terps, I happen to actually be a huge fan of the Maryland state flag and love that it's been subtly incorporated into the uniforms of the Ravens and Orioles.

But the key word is subtle. These things are the very definition of eyesore, and depending on who you talk to, may or may not have been stolen from a Baltimore-based roller derby team.

As I've said before, this is one of about a thousand reasons that college football, love it as much as I do, just will not measure up to the NFL for me. Uniform stability is right up there with quality of play, quality of organization and reasonable means of determining a champion. And so, given my love for the NFL, it is with great joy that I get ready to watch some very exciting football this weekend. No, not just Friday morning's Qualifying Final between Geelong and Hawthorn -- though that will be awesome -- but professional American football, which kicks off Obama style on Thursday night with Green Bay and New Orleans and then reaches a high point for me Sunday afternoon when the New York Gia play the Redskins on the 10th anniversary of 9/11. I'm calling them the New York Gia because half the team, apparently, is already injured.

Despite those injuries, I will be making may plans to see the Gia this season on multiple occasions. I've already got my flight booked to San Francisco, am working on going up to New England to see Big Blue face the Pats, and am very seriously considering trying to find someone to go to New Orleans with me to see the Giants play the Saints as it's a Monday night game and those are far easier for me to take off work for than the Sunday variety.

Until then, however, I'll just be watching on TV. Again I will be picking games each week against the spread in my inevitably failed quest to beat Vegas -- it's a good thing I don't actually bet on sports -- but before I tell you who will win this week I suppose I need to tell you who's going to win in general.

And with that in mind, it's time for my almost certain to be wrong 2011 NFL Season Predictions.

AFC East

1. NY Jets - This is by far my most unreasonable pick of the season, but I think New England is overrated and the Jets tend to overachieve under Ryan. 12-4.
2. New England - But don't underestimate Darth Belichick. I'm sure he'd have something up his sleeves if he wore any. 10-6.
3. Buffalo - The new uniforms are an incredible upgrade. Step 2 is upgrading the team. 5-11.
4. Miami - These boys can't swim. 4-12.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh - Honestly, who wants to disagree with me on this? Yeah, I didn't think so. 13-3.
2. Baltimore - I say this a lot, but people probably won't give the Ravens their due for being as dominant as they have been for the past decade if they don't win another championship. 11-5.
3. Cleveland - The Peyton Hillis Speedwagon just keeps on rolling. Right to a sixth win. 6-10.
4. Cincinnati - No quarterback? No problem. Oh wait, lots of problems. At least until Andy Dalton grows up. 1-15.

AFC South

1. Houston - Oh my lord, it's finally here. I don't know what to say. Really. 11-5.
2. Indianapolis - This team is so well-rounded and complete, and they never fail to make their presence felt. Huh? His neck is sore? Are you sure? 7-9.
3. Tennessee - Matt Hasselbeck can really add another dimension to this offense if he doesn't throw his back out while moving his walker. 6-10.
4. Jacksonville - Oh man. I've got a great idea. Let's tell the coach that his future is on the line this season if he doesn't make the playoffs. And then, let's cut his starting quarterback five days before the season. 4-12.

AFC West

1. San Diego - Fact: The Chargers had the No. 1 offense in the NFL last season. Fact: The Chargers had the No. 1 defense in the NFL last season. Fact: The Chargers missed the playoffs last season. So... regression to the mean, right? 12-4.
2. Kansas City - You have to expect the Chiefs to come back a little from last year, but they're poised to take over this division when San Diego's window closes. 8-8.
3. Denver - Go ahead. Bet against Kyle Orton. He'll win more games than you expect. Not many more, but definitely, like, one more. 6-10.
4. Oakland - So this is some fun, the Raiders were the only team in the League to go undefeated in their division last season, a feat that will be tough to duplicate. Against the rest of the League the Raiders won... twice. That, too, will be tough to duplicate. 5-11.

NFC East

1. Philadelphia - IT'S A DREAM TEAM. But definitely one of those dreams where you wake up right before finding out who the murderer is or that hot girl in your apartment building takes her clothes off. 11-5.
2. NY Gia - Get it? Because they're injured! Whatever, I'm still optimistically blinded by my fandom. And so are most pundits if you look at the predictions. 10-6.
3. Dallas - Now that the Cowboys aren't hosting the Super Bowl anymore, do you think people might stop considering them Super Bowl contenders? 7-9.
4. Washington - I'm pretty sure every defensive player in the NFC East got aroused when they found out Rex Grossman was the starting quarterback. 4-12.

NFC North
1. Green Bay - Um. Yeah. These guys are really, pretty good. 13-3.
2. Detroit - And you know what? So are these guys. 9-7.
3. Minnesota - I have never been this clueless about where to put a team maybe ever. There are so many variables and a decent amount of talent. Not enough though. Really, if the roof stays in one piece they should consider the season a success. 7-9.
4. Chicago - These guys are almost as confusing as Minnesota. But just almost. 5-11.

NFC South

1. Atlanta - I'm willing to bet that playoff loss to the Packers sticks in Atlanta's craw more than just a little. 12-4.
2. New Orleans - These guys are looking to rebound from a tough postseason loss, too. Too bad they play in such a tough division. 9-7.
3. Tampa Bay - That Josh Freeman is pretty awesome. At least he better be for the sake of my fantasy team. 8-8.
4. Carolina - Cam Newton is going to be getting a really talented side kick soon. Only problem is he's getting him because the Panthers will have a top 5 pick. Again. 2-14.

NFC West

1. St. Louis - Sam Bradford has a lot more weapons than people think. The Rams just might scare some people. 9-7.
2. San Francisco - Welcome to the show Jim Harbaugh. This team probably won't fare as well as Stanford did last season, but most of your rivals are just about as good as USC normally is. 7-9.
3. Arizona - So Kevin Kolb is expected to be quite the elixir for this team, but I'd really love to know when everyone made the communal decision to decide that Kevin Kolb is really, really good. 6-10.
4. Seattle - The Seahawks won the division last year. The division did not have any teams with a winning record. Seriously. Not one. 5-11.

AFC Playoffs
Wild Card weekend
(3) NY Jets over (6) New England
Still can't justify this. I'm still sticking with it, though.
(5) Baltimore over (4) Houston
Man the Texans are just so happy to be here. So very, very happy.

Divisional weekend
(1) Pittsburgh over (5) Baltimore
Cities will be destroyed during this game. There's simply no other way to describe the certain destruction that awaits.
(2) San Diego over (3) NY Jets
The Jets love to over achieve, but I have a feeling their run of AFC title game appearances is about to end. It was a good run, though, wasn't it?

AFC Championship Game
(2) San Diego over (1) Pittsburgh
I mean, seriously, how due is this team. Really. They've got to break through one of these years, right?

NFC Playoffs
Wild Card weekend
(6) New Orleans over (3) Philadelphia
You know a few weeks ago I was taking a girl on a date and I told her I hated the Eagles. She thought this seemed like a bit of a strong word and said, "I can't imagine hating anybody unless they, like, killed puppies or something." To this I responded, "You know, it's funny you should mention." True story.
(5) NY Gia over (4) St. Louis
I would sign up for this first round matchup in a heartbeat. Right now.

Divisional weekend
(6) New Orleans over (1) Green Bay
Really, they could be the best No. 6 seed in history
(2) Atlanta over (5) NY Gia
Well, it was fun while it lasted, folks.

NFC Championship Game
(2) Atlanta over (6) New Orleans
You know, I'm not going to lie. It makes me feel kind of gross picking the same Super Bowl matchup as Sports Illustrated.

Super Bowl XLVI
(2) San Diego over (2) Atlanta 
But I'm not picking the same winner. Let's be honest. For the Chargers? It's about time.

So there you go kids. My official certain to be wrong NFL season preview. Good ol' Stan Humphries will be so proud of his old team. Maybe.

And now that you've gone through that exhausting read, perhaps you'll go a little further with this week's picks. Here. We. Go.

Last week: n/a
Season: 0-0-0

GREEN BAY (-4.5) over New Orleans
Atlanta (-3) over CHICAGO
CLEVELAND (-7) over Cincinnati
KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo
Philadelphia (-6) over ST. LOUIS
TAMPA BAY (-1) over Detroit
Tennessee (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh (+3) over BALTIMORE
HOUSTON (-9) over Indianapolis
Carolina (+7) over ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO (-9) over Minnesota
SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Seattle
NY Giants (-3) over WASHINGTON
NY JETS (-4) over Dallas
New England (-7) over MIAMI
DENVER (-3) over Oakland

And there you have it. See you all at kickoff tonight. Thank God it's football season.

My Sure To Be Mocked Probably Wrong Super Bowl XLV Prediction

I felt a strange twinge of nostalgia this week when I came across the news that Andy Pettitte, stalwart postseason pitcher of the Yankees' recent championship era, was announcing his retirement from Major League Baseball. Obviously, as a Mets fan this doesn't exactly change my life or make me yearn for the good ol' days, but Pettitte had a few things working in his factor me me. Most prominently, it was hard to ignore his ability to pitch in big games -- he is the winningest postseason pitcher in history after all. As well, he is, well, pretty likeable all things considered. But biggest among those quirks for me is the fact that despite not being a Yankees fan, it was impossible to grow up in New York or New Jersey in the 1990s and not have been impacted or influenced by the Yankees' dynasty one way or the other. And when I attended my very first Yankees game in person, it was Andy Pettitte who stood on the mound.

Because of those reasons, there is a twinge of sadness for me in seeing that Pettitte is retiring as well as a wariness of the fact that "is he a Hall of Famer" or not debates sprang up almost instantly. These are all silly since the Hall of Fame has rendered itself completely bunk, but fortunately for all of us, that bit of news has thoroughly been tossed to the backburner because there's a football game this Sunday.

You might have heard of it.

If not, no worries, but something tells me if you had no idea the Super Bowl was this evening, you probably wouldn't be the sort of person who spends their time reading this. Now, if you're part of the other 99% of the population (people cognizant of the Super Bowl, not people that read my blog), well then you must be pretty excited about the impending kickoff between Green Bay and Pittsburgh in 18 and a half hours or so.

Hopefully you're handling the impending excitement better than Dallas has. Then again that wouldn't be hard.

Not that "North Texas", as the city of Arlington wants it to be known since the game isn't actually in Dallas, hasn't done a decent job preparing the excitement. I'm sure the preparations for what will happen later today at Jerry World are first rate, but the North Texas area has seen its fair share of problems that fall well outside of the NFL's control or responsibility. Of course, some of these issues aren't as big as others, but the massively unfortunate influence of bad weather can hardly be anyone's fault. The apparent dangers are real, but no one can really say they expected a blast of harsh winter weather and snow that has actually made the Dallas/Ft. Worth area about as unpleasant to be in as the northeast corridor. The game is in Texas. Texas generally is warm if not hot. Moreover, with the truly big problems solved any concerns that the Super Bowl might not be returning to Dallas because of the cold weather seem ill-founded for three basic reasons.

1) The average high in Dallas on Feb. 6, is 59 degrees. Clearly this is an abnormal case of bad luck.
2) The Super Bowl has been played before in cold weather sites like Minneapolis and Detroit (twice), and will be played in three years in New Jersey.
3) Finally, and perhaps most importantly, tonight's game is being play indoors.

Speaking of which, let's get to that whole ordeal. Who the hell is going to win this damn thing? And why?

Well, there are many schools of thought and considering I have a number of friends who hail from or consider themselves fans of both the Steelers and Packers, I know I'm going to leave at least one person peeved, assuming they actually read this or put stock in it. And both of those ideas are silly. Being that it's late, I don't really have time or energy to break things down bit by bit, so I'll simply talk about where the crux of this game will fall. And that, in my opinion, will rest on five people: Ben Roethlisberger, B.J. Raji, Doug Legursky, A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews.

Yes, I know, Aaron Rodgers still has to face one of the toughest defenses in the League, but given the kind of zone he was in earlier in the playoffs and that this game will be inside, I have little concern that he will be able to produce. Whether Green Bay's offense will outwit Pittsburgh's defense is a mystery that won't be solved until the two sides take the field -- both units are top notch. And while one will certainly get the better of the other in the end, there is no discernible mismatch here that a prognosticator like me can exploit.

But that isn't so on the other side of the ball.

A fact that has gone somewhat unnoticed for the first two games Pittsburgh has played this postseason is that Pittsburgh's offensive line hasn't been playing too well. Both Baltimore and New York had their way with the Steelers' offensive front for significant stretches and this looms particularly large when one considers that Green Bay's Raji has been absolutely stellar at eating space, disrupting plays and penetrating into the pocket to wreak general havoc on offenses he opposes. If Raji and the rest of Green Bay's impressive defensive line can play as well as it has this postseason, it will pose a massive problem for Pittsburgh's offense. This problem is exacerbated enormously by the absence of rookie Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, who will miss the game with multiple ankle and foot injuries he suffered against the Jets in the AFC Championship Game. In his place will be Doug Legursky, an undrafted free agent who has never started a game at center before.

Sunday will be Legursky's first ever start at center. Sunday is the Super Bowl.

Call me crazy, but I can't see Legursky having an easy time of it against the quick, massive block that is Raji, and given that Legursky fumbled a snap to Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship Game, resulting in a safety, this does not bode well for Big Ben's protection. Luckily for the Steelers, this hasn't always been an issue. Roethlisberger, despite his size, is known for his impressive mobility, his ability to extend plays with his legs and his ability to throw on the run outside the pocket. Typically he has evaded pressure and found open receivers on broken routes with little problem. But he's also never faced two linebackers like Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk. They are big, strong and they have speed to burn.

This is where the fate of this game lies.

Yes, Pittsburgh has faced impressive defenses, with New York featuring the likes of Bart Scott and Baltimore showing Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs. But Scott had no partner to match the combined ability of Mattews and Hawk, and Ray Lewis, despite his sideline to sideline speed, is old. He is one of the greatest middle linebackers of all time, but he didn't get the chance that Green Bay's middle linebackers, in their primes and with a defensive line that could potentially eat Pittsburgh's offensive line apart Sunday night, will have in the Super Bowl. I see Raji getting a huge push up the middle, I see Roethlisberger leaving the pocket earlier than he wants to, and I see Matthews and Hawk chasing the Pittsburgh QB all around the field to keep him from having enough time to make plays work. It won't be easy and it won't be a blowout -- the Packers' offense will be given plenty of fits -- but ultimately this is how I imagine the game playing out.

That's why I'm taking the Green Bay Packers to win Super Bowl XLV.

Score predictions are meaningless, but if you all really want me to give one, let's go with Green Bay 23, Pittsburgh 17. It'll be exciting enough and we'll all be happy it happened in the end. I can't promise you I'll be right, but I can promise you that if I am, I won't be as obnoxious as some sportswriters who had the mysterious good fortunate to pick the right Super Bowl matchup in their season preview even if they actually changed their picks after the regular season.

And if I'm wrong, well, let's just forget I picked Green Bay just like we all forgot I picked Indianapolis last year. Enjoy the game everyone.

Those Bastards At Sports Illustrated Have Done It Again

Well, I'm sorry, Jets fans. Just when you thought your team was cresting at the right time and finally going to break through in their third AFC Championship Game appearance in the last 13 years, Sports Illustrated, for the second straight year, decided to take a big ol' cutlass and slice your dreams to pieces. How'd they pull that off, you say? Well, my worries regarding the Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx are well documented in multiple posts on this here blog, and like any smart, rational person, I immediately assume that must be the reason things have not gone according to plan. If any of you remember, last year's Divisional playoffs spawned two regional covers, which featured both the Jets and the Vikings. In the case of Minnesota, the cover even proclaimed "Favre on Fire" just days before his foolish across the body pass would be intercepted by Terry Porter when the Vikes were driving for a game-winning field goal against New Orleans.

While the Jets also lost, one could easily argue that this was due not just to the editorial decisions in the Time Inc. offices, but also because they tried as hard as possible to jinx themselves. But that doesn't leave much of an excuse for what happened this time around. After publishing regional covers last year that resulted in both cover teams losing their respective conference championship games, you'd think the brilliant minds at SI would remember that unless we're entering a bizarre period of gonzo journalism, they're supposed to stay out of the way and leave the outcome unaffected by their presence.

Well they didn't learn their goddamn lesson.

Much as America must love seeing Tom Brady look like a five-year-old who just saw his prized blankey and teddy bear make like Steve Buscemi in Fargo, and as awesome a photograph as that picture of Jay Cutler approaching the line in snowy Chicago is, something about this just seems plain wrong -- as if Sports Illustrated, knowing its curse-wreaking power, has consciously selected whom it wants to play in Super Bowl XLV. It just ain't right, or at least it won't be if the anticipated effect takes place.

Granted, with four classic franchises like Green Bay, Chicago, New York and Pittsburgh making up the Final Four, we're pretty much guaranteed a great, traditional matchup no matter what happens. And more over, with Green Bay title-less for 14 years now, Chicago in the midst of a 25-year drought and the Jets now a stunning 42 years removed from their last Super Bowl appearance, we've got a 75% chance of seeing a Champion we haven't seen an a long while. All of these things bode well for an end to the season that will seem both classic and refreshing all at once.

But given Sports Illustrated's dirty tricks, we're pretty much guaranteed a Packers-Steelers matchup in Super Bowl XLV, right?


NOT SO FAST.

Yes, the Sports Illustrated curse may be accurate roughly a third of the time, but there is another powerful sports trend that in the last half decade has had a startling 100% accuracy rate, and like the answers to most things, this lies, draped in purple, on the shores of Lake Michigan at Northwestern University. The city of Chicago will be having a particularly big sports day this Sunday, as the Blackhawks will host the Flyers in a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup Final before the major event of the day when the Bears and Packers face off in the postseason for the first time in seven decades and then, of course, Northwestern's men's hoops game against Wisconsin -- a double dip of Chicago-Wisconsin blood feuding. But Chicago's greatest influence in sports may come from its Big Ten team, which has recently provided us with the anticurse of professional football: The Power of Willie.

The Power of Willie

Unbeknownst to most of you, Northwestern has a decent number of players in the NFL, but the quantity is hardly remarkable. What is remarkable, however, is that the last five teams to win the Super Bowl have all had a Northwestern grad on their roster. To wit:

Super Bowl XL: Trai Essex, Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl XLI: Matt Ulrich, Indianapolis Colts
Super Bowl XLII: Barry Coefield, New York Giants
Super Bowl XLIII: Trai Essex, Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl XLIV: Zach Strief, New Orleans Saints

So, obviously, you're thinking, "Gee Dave, since this is clearly an irrefutable rule, who still stands a chance this season?" Well, I'll tell you. Just about everyone. Except for one awfully big green and gold outlier.

Pittsburgh
Trai Essex

New York
Marquice Cole

Chicago
Nick Roach
Corey Wootton

Green Bay
None

So there you have it. The Green Bay Packers, who just might look the best of any of the remaining four teams right now, have virtually no shot to take home their fourth Lombardi Trophy this season. Willie has decreed it.

But don't worry, Packer Backers. While this means you won't win the Super Bowl, it doesn't mean you won't win this week. And frankly, I think you will. So let's get to these picks here.

NFC Championship
(6) Green Bay over (2) Chicago
Yes, the Bears are certainly playing much better right now than I would have anticipated, and of course they are the home team in what will certainly be frigid weather and crummy footing, but frankly, I have a hard time imagining anything cooling down Aaron Rodgers right now. Much as I'd like to see the chance of two Wildcats taking home hardware, I just can't see the Packers, at the level they're currently playing at, not pulling this out either by blowout or nailbiter. But then again, I've been wrong before.

AFC Championship
(6) NY Jets over (2) Pittsburgh
What? Again? I'm taking the Jets again? Well, yeah, I am. I think. I have no real rational reason to believe the Jets are going to beat the Steelers this weekend -- frankly, I'm pretty certain Pittsburgh is the better team -- but there just looks to be something about this team and how it's playing now that makes me think they're going to accomplish some bigger things, particularly with last year's conference title game experience in their memory bank. Besides, I'm still flying high after correctly calling their upset last week, even if some people are too petty to let it go. Why not see the ride continue?

So yes, I know this seems unusual, after all, pitting two six seeds against each other in a Super Bowl is an odd choice considering only one six seed has ever appeared in the NFL's title game, but this doesn't seem like your typical playoff tournament, and these don't seem like your typical six seeds. I feel like I'm on pretty steady ground. And given the Power of Willie and perhaps some additional inspiration, does this mean I think when all is said and done on February 6th that the Jets will have won the Super Bowl?

Well, yes it does. But don't get too excited just yet, Jets nation. I have been wrong before. But hey, my picks are 6-2 so far this postseason. Let's just say I like my chances.

So I Guess I Was Wrong Again

I neglected to mention on Wednesday that January 12 was my first Blogversary for this all-too-heavily trafficked site. It's ok if you forgot to buy me a present. I can't blame you for perhaps getting distracted by what was, perhaps, one of my more depressing entries, but the good news is that since today happens to be my half-birthday -- at 25 1/2 I'm pretty ancient now -- you still have the time to buy me a present. It's the least you can do after all the trouble I've gone to to bore all of you for the past 12 months.

One might say I already got a present yesterday when Cam Newton announced he was entering the NFL Draft (what, he didn't think he'd be eligible at Auburn next year?), but if none of you can find it in your hearts to be so generous, however, I'll manage to be ok because I got a gift of sorts already this week in the form of my tickets to next month's Knicks-76ers game in Philadelphia, a venture that will knock Team No. 38 off the list and get me one step closer to that ultimate goal of way too many stadiums than the average person should see -- though considering the Sixers and Flyers both play at the Wells Fargo Center, I guess I've actually seen this arena already.

Regardless, Feb. 4th in Philadelphia should be an exciting day, if for no other reason than the fact that the Knicks, by some remarkable mystery, continue to to be good and this will mark the third city I've seen them in outside of New York. And considering how mediocre the Sixers have been this season, I've managed to snag rather decent seats at a stiff discount from the face value price.

Go me.

Of course, I've had some difficulty actually seeing the new tickets with all of the egg on my face from last Saturday, and if you're wondering what egg I'm talking about you either didn't read my entry on picks last week (extremely likely) or didn't watch the Seahawks stunning upset win over the Saints last weekend (let's be honest, you just didn't read my blog entry). But the long and short of it was, I think the Seahawks are a terrible football team. Still do, actually. And yet they knocked off the defending-champion New Orleans Saints in a first-round playoff upset that is, well, really pretty damn remarkable.

How remarkable?

Well, suffice it to say, and I know Giants fans will consider this blasphemy, trust me, I am one of them after all, but I might go so far as to say this might be the biggest postseason upset of the last decade if not ever. Yes, I know the Giants were up against what was probably the greatest football team I ever saw in Super Bowl XLII, and pulled out a dramatic victory if there ever was one, but let's remember a few things. For one, the Giants were pretty damn good that season. They were 10-6 that season, which most years is at the very least decent enough to get you into the postseason if not a respectable showing. In addition New York had had some dominant performances that season and at one point won six games in a row, which is nearly as many as Seattle won the entire regular season. Lastly, it is hard to ignore that the Giants nearly beat the Patriots in the final week of the regular season.

While the Seahawks were home and the Saints were flying across the country and were battling injuries, there was never an indication that Seattle with its 28th-ranked offense was capable of outscoring one of the top offenses in the League. And that's because, and last Saturday aside, I will stand by this, the Seattle Seahawks are a terrible football team. Seriously. They are terrible.

How terrible are we talking? Well, according the editor of FiveThirtyEight.com and general statistics wiz Nate Silver, the Seahawks are the worst NFL team to ever make the postseason in a non-strike year, and might possibly be the second worst playoff team in the history of professional sports. God bless the 1952-53 Baltimore Bullets. To put an even finer point on it -- possibly the finest point -- one analysis in Silver's article showed these Seahawks would be just three-point favorites over the 2008 Detroit Lions. And if you need any refresher on that team, they were pretty horrendous.

Of course, given all that, I'm sure they're going to whoop the Bears in Chicago this weekend -- they beat them there once already -- just to make me look like a fool again, though if you go back and look, I did, in fact, say the Seahawks would win against New Orleans last week. The details beneath the heading are just fine print. You don't need to read those.

Besides, y'all can give me credit for correctly tabbing the other three games last weekend, including wins by two six-seeds, right? Or at least I can distract you with this excellent representation of Marshawn Lynch's game-sealing touchdown run, which just might be the greatest in NFL postseason history.



In any event, you're not here to read my rambles. You're here to see some picks. Picks that will probably be wrong. Heaven forbid I keep you from that. So here we go.

NFC
(1) Atlanta over (6) Green Bay
Does anyone else think it's almost unfair that these two teams have to face each other while the Bears and Seahawks try not to cross swords in the powder puff bowl? Probably. I really won't be surprised if either team wins this game, but the Falcons and Matty Ice are nearly unbeatable at the Georgia Dome so I'll give them the nod. Either way, I expect whomever takes this one to be representing the NFC in Dallas next month.

(2) Chicago over (4) Seattle
This just has disaster written all over it, doesn't it? I could feel like I'm falling into the trap on this one by relying on the truth that the Seahawks are not good at football. After all, who else could inspire multiple Mario Bros.-themed Youtube mashups? But come on. I'm not stupid. The Bears may be one of the weaker No. 2 seeds we've seen in a while, but they're better than Seattle. Go ahead. Prove me wrong again.

AFC

(6) NY Jets over (1) New England
Yeah, I know, this one is ballsy. But have you seen today's New York Post? Really. Have you seen it? These people have outdone themselves in a way I never thought possible. And if this brilliant piece of, yes, art, doesn't tell you that the force is, in fact, with the Jets, then you either don't have faith in upsets or haven't noticed how amazingly close this back page comes to duplicating all three Star Wars special edition movie posters while taking in elements from nearly each film. Seriously. Somehow this has topped both Hothlanta, and the latest Death Star trench run. Somehow this has actually made me almost forget about Antonio Cromartie's all-too-honest assessment of Tom Brady, or Wes Welker's rather clever press conference from earlier this week. So yeah, let's go with the Jets, I guess. Why not?

(2) Pittsburgh over (5) Baltimore
It's kind of remarkable that with two great teams facing off who also happen to hate each other, no one really seems to have noticed that this game is being played. Sure Sportscenter gives it five or so minutes every hour, but come on. This is probably the best matchup of the weekend and it's almost as if it isn't happening. Well, maybe that's an exagerration, but it is happening, and I really have no idea who'll win, but I'm still bitter at Baltimore for some football game that happened like a decade ago, so... I'll go with the Stillers.

I bet five people at most got through that whole screed. No matter. The fewer of you that know I was wrong on Monday morning the better. Happy football everyone.

The Playoffs Start This Weekend? Who Knew?

Ok, that's a lie. I knew. Still more than a little bummed about the tragic second annual collapse of my Giants, I've done a fair bit of ignoring the passage of time and the football games it will bring tomorrow afternoon, but who am I kidding. I love football. I love the playoffs. I'm not actually going to miss any of it. That would be silly.

Unfortunately, with the Giants out I'm kind of stuck in a malaise with no team to root for or care about -- an unusual place for me considering that at least one of my teams is usually competitive at any given time. But here we are. The Giants' place is obvious. The Devils are in the midst, unexpectedly, of the worst season they've had in my lifetime. Pitchers and catchers don't report for the Mets for five weeks, and I'm not sure that'll even be a good thing. Northwestern just lost its eighth bowl game in a row in heartbreaking fashion. Northwestern Basketball is slowly starting to fritter away a promising season due to an injury to John Shurna and general ineptitude. And the Knicks are, well, the Knicks.

Wait, what's that? The Knicks are suddenly awesome?

Yes, I was shocked, too, but on Tuesday night I decided to go to my first Knicks game in at least two years, and I experienced something unlike anything I had ever seen before in the Garden. That'll happen with a decade that makes mediocrity seem palatable. But here I was, watching the 'Bockers put up 72 first-half points against the League's premiere defensive team of the past decade and seeing MSG rock in a way I had yet to really experience. It was exciting. It was intense. It was fun.

Apparently, this is what Knicks basketball is supposed to be like.

Now, I obviously don't harbor any silly beliefs that New York is destined to hoist its first Larry O'Brien Trophy in almost 40 years this June, but for the first time in a long time, there's hope that it might at some point in the plausible future before I die. And it's fun to watch along the way. I will say that while I expected Donnie Walsh to help turn the Knicks' fortunes around, I didn't expect them to be competitive this quickly, nor did I have any idea what it would seem like. This is a team that has seemed almost a nonentity for a decade. Now they're worth watching and I don't quite know what to do, but I do know that it's a refreshing distraction from the fact that, sports-wise, nothing else really seems to be going right for me these days.

Of course, while the Knicks may give me some joy it is, of course, foolish to think that I will actually not watch the NFL playoffs when they kick off in Seattle tomorrow afternoon. And even more foolish to think  won't try some ridiculous prediction of the postseason's outcome. I will be honest and admit that, no, I don't actually think the Chiefs and Seahawks will be meeting in the Super Bowl like I predicted last week. Nor will it be the Colts-Packers matchup I predicted in my NFL season preview, though I am proud that those two teams are in the mix considering I only got one of the eight teams playing on Wild Card weekend right and only two of my Wild Card weekend teams made the playoffs at all. Ironically, I got the Giants' record exactly right, though I also had them making the playoffs. I also expect I will get some of these games wrong so I will readjust my picks next week. Some of you might find this to be a cop out.

Oh well. Let's make some predictions.

NFC
(4) Seattle over (5) New Orleans - Saturday, 4:30
Haha, just kidding. Caught you confused for a second didn't I? No, don't worry, the undeserving 7-9 Seahawks are going get waxed pretty thoroughly by the Aints tomorrow afternoon, to the point that it's almost not fair. Frankly, regardless of where the game is being played, I'm kind of shocked New Orleans is only an 11-point favorite.

(6) Green Bay over (3) Philadelphia - Sunday, 4:30
I get the feeling Michael Vick is beat up, the Packers' defense is playing well and that Green Bay is about to crest in a big way. Call it a hunch, or maybe wishful thinking, but Green Bay is a lot better than its No. 6 seed, and I think there will be a lot of disappointed people in Philadelphia at the end of this weekend.

AFC
(5) Baltimore over (4) Kansas City - Sunday, 1:00
I actually think the Chiefs are an underrated team with a fairly decent chance of defending their home field, but when you get down to brass tacks, K.C. is young and inexperienced and Baltimore just might be the best Wild Card team we've seen in a long while. Put this team in any division in the League other than the AFC East and its own and they're probably winning it in a walk.

(6) NY Jets over (3) Indianapolis - Saturday, 8:00
One could fall on the trite idea that there's a revenge factor at play and the the Jets are going to take care of business left unsettled since their loss to the Colts in last season's AFC Championship Game, but that seems silly to me. Really it's a case of the Jets playing well and the Colts being so injured that they're a shell of their defending conference champion selves, even with Peyton Manning.

And now for the resultant later round matchups which are sure to change once this week proves me wrong:

NFC
(1) Atlanta over (6) Green Bay
(5) New Orleans over (2) Chicago

NFC Championship
(1) Atlanta over (5) New Orleans

AFC
(6) NY Jets over (1) New England
(2) Pittsburgh over (5) Baltimore

AFC Championship
(6) NY Jets over (2) Pittsburgh

Super Bowl XLV
(1) Atlanta over (6) NY Jets

And there you have it! I guarantee you 100% no frills that the Falcons will defeat the Jets in Super Bowl XLV. No way is that prediction not coming true. NO WAY.

Get your ass to Vegas. You've got money to win.

NFL Picks Week Sixteen: In Which I Forget Week Fifteen

Let me tell you all, I have had a doozy of a week so far and once you're done reading through that riveting Senators-Predators preview you're reading I'm going to tell you all about it. Ok, good. Yes, I know things could be worse, and in general life is fine, but some of you might have noticed that I didn't write for a whole week, and that is because when some awful, horrifying, unexpected, gut-wrenching things happen you are left speechless.

I am without speech. Still.

Sunday's colossal debacle against the Eagles, which saw the Giants go from likely No. 2 seed to playoff life support in a matter of seven and a half minutes is not something that I have yet been able to comprehend or grasp. In fact, I'm still not able to speak about it out loud with thoughts of anger and depression over what could have been. Granted, the Giants aren't exactly done. If they defeat the Packers this Sunday they'll have clinched a berth and will still have an outside chance of winning the No. 5 seed lottery to face whatever dung pile "wins" the NFC West, but should Big Blue not come through in Green Bay they'll need help on the final day of the season.

And ain't all that just a bit angst-inducing?

Well, yeah. It is. I do like New York's chances since Aaron Rodgers, while he is expected to be under center for the Pack, is still coming off a concussion that one would have to think leaves him a little woozy, no? I guess we'll find out on Sunday.

After the Giants game I was unable to think or comprehend anything. After all, only two other games, the blown 24-point lead against San Francisco in the 2002 playoffs, and Super Bowl XXXV come close to the gut punch this game delivered. But as I always tell myself, I can handle the depression with the greatest upset in football history in my back pocket.

Of course, that was just the start of a week that has quickly entered a downward spiral.

To make the pain worse, my fantasy football team decided to score all of one touchdown in the semifinals which robbed me of a potentially hefty payday. That one, I'm sure, matters to a lot of you.

But I had an ace up my sleeve. After two full years without seeing a Northwestern basketball game in person, the Wildcats were coming to Madison Square Garden this week, giving me the chance to see a squad that was one of eight remaining undefeateds in the country and just might be the one that finally breaks NU's hex of missing the NCAA Tournament. Of course, it was difficult to feel as though Northwestern's place in March was assured given it had played a non-conference schedule that a group of fifth-graders could probably finish at least .500 against. Still, like clockwork, the Cats took out St. Francis on Monday night with me and some 2,000 other of my closest friends watching.

All was well and good. Until Tuesday.

Before I go into the game itself, allow me to warn any of you from ever leaving a ticket at Will Call in Madison Square Garden. I had two unused tickets Tuesday, and after leaving one for my friend Kristen at Will Call, a homeless man asked if he could have any ticket to the game I could spare and feeling as if there were worse crimes in the world than letting a homeless man see a basketball game, I obliged him. This wound up biting me in the ass at halftime when Kristen showed up and called me with the revelation that MSG had lost my ticket. To make matters worse, the supervisor in charge of will call insisted that without a ticket there was nothing he could do. I'm fairly certain that really he just didn't want to help.

He's a big man after all.

After harassing the supervisor long enough, one of the will call employees, realizing that dozens of tickets which would not be used were still sitting on the table, simply handed Kristen one, prompting the supervisor to smugly chirp, "See? Everything works out."

I hope he's never known the touch of a woman without paying for it.

In any event, with Kristen in the building and Northwestern holding a halftime lead against St. John's, everything seemed nice and fine until the Wildcats suddenly forgot how to shoot and Luka Mirkovic forgot out to play defense in the paint. One unexpected loss to a team expected to be a nonfactor later and suddenly Northwestern's perfect record had a blemish that just may keep them from dancing in three months.

So all that was pretty bad. Then last night I got the flu. So everything's going great. Amazingly, the most normal thing that seems to be happening is that the Devils fired coach John MacLean this morning and brought in Jacques Lemaire for a third tour behind the bench. Then again, GM Lou Lamoriello goes through about seven coaches a season anyway.

Alright, time for some picks.

Last week: 6-10-0
Season: 110-105-10

PITTSBURGH (-15) over Carolina
Dallas (-7) over ARIZONA
NY Giants (+3) over GREEN BAY
New England (-9) over BUFFALO
NY Jets (+1) over CHICAGO
Baltimore (-4) over CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY (-5) over Tennessee
ST. LOUIS (-2) over San Francisco
Detroit (+4) over MIAMI
JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Washington
San Diego (-8) over CINCINNATI
Houston (-3) over DENVER
Indianapolis (-3) over OAKLAND
TAMPA BAY (-6) over Seattle
Minnesota (+14) over PHILADELPHIA
ATLANTA (-3) over New Orleans

There you have it folks. Hopefully next week is better. Oh, and Merry Christmas.

NFL Picks Week Fifteen: In Which I Care About The Knicks Again

Holy shit.

After a decade of ambivalence towards a team that made mediocrity seem good, I actually care about the Knicks again. For those of you who haven't been paying attention, New York has won 13 of 14 games with their last being an impressive victory over the Nuggets Sunday afternoon. While another winning streak was halted last night in a heartbreaking last second loss to the Boston Celtics, there are a few things to notice here about this team. First of all, Amar'e Stoudemire is a monster in the front court, plain and simple. I was among the chorus of individuals who viewed him as a nice signing for the 'Bockers this offseason, but not one that could singlehandedly turn a franchise's fortunes around. His role was best as a second fiddle to someone like LeBron James, who shockingly landed elsewhere.

I was wrong.

Not only can Amar'e be "the guy", but he's thriving of late. Of course, second of all, for me to say he is the sole reason for the Knicks' recent good fortune would be shortsighted. Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton and Wilson Chandler have all played parts in the resurgence. Third of all, this game, even as a loss, proves the Knicks can play with the big boys. This wasn't a fluke, this wasn't random and it could be a harbinger of the team's return to relevance in a League in which New York has been an utter non-factor for the past decade. I have at times lamented both the Knicks' absurd mediocrity and my own youthful foolishness in choosing to root for them, but perhaps, at long last, that may no longer be the case.

Wednesday night's wild shootout with Boston was the second time the Garden rocked this week, and MSG hasn't had that kind of basketball excitement in it since the Knicks lost to San Antonio in the 1999 NBA Finals, or maybe even since the days of Patrick Ewing and John Starks. Now things are different and even the opposition, in this case Paul Pierce, recognizes it. After the game last night Pierce noted, "The Knicks have arrived."

So, in the midst of all this excitement, I bring to the table a curiousity wholly related to the sudden rise of Mike D'Antoni's boys.

This feels kind of funny.

No, not ha-ha funny. This feels weird, odd, highly unusual. In a good way, of course, but watching the Knicks and actually having a reason to feel hopeful is something I haven't experienced in my entire adult life. So dramatic is the shift that the Knicks missed out on my 2000s jersey-buying spree and as a result I don't even own one piece of Knicks merchandise. It may be time for this to change. A bobblehead or two, or at least a jersey, might be in order in time for my tentative plans to see the Knicks in Philadelphia in February, but before I get to that point, I'm going to need to recognize and reconcile these odd feelings I have about actually wanting to watch the Knicks play basketball again.

The only thing I can really relate this to, and this may sound odd, is the kind of awakening that comes when you hit puberty. I remember, pretty exactly, when the first moment was that I saw a woman in a bikini and was actually intrigued rather than being ambivalent or grossed out. As an 11-year-old whose mother had, for whatever reason, opted not to tell Sports Illustrated to keep the Swimsuit Issue to itself when I moved over from SI for Kids, I saw the 1997 SI Swimsuit Issue on my coffee table one February, the first thing even remotely close to pornography that I had ever owned. The thoughts that run through your mind when you aren't quite sure if you're supposed to like what you're seeing -- even though you know you do -- are a cautious curiosity of the as yet unknown. And while this may seem like an utterly ridiculous parallel to draw -- that's because it is -- that's what I feel like I'm experiencing with the Knicks. The unknown. I've never known what it's like to be a post-pubescent adult who actually has a reason to be optimistic or care about the Knicks. I don't know what this is or how to manage it, just that I may not have a choice in doing so. And given that situation, I'm going to do whatever it is I can to make the best of it. Or at least enjoy it.

Now that said, I understand that it's foolish to assume the Knickerbockers are suddenly championship contenders. But they are, at long last on the road back.

They matter. And last night is as a piece of evidence as you can hope for that they do.

And with all that said, I sometimes feel as though I've written a solid blog post that stands on its own -- and this is one of them. But those damn Thursday night NFL games mean I'm going to have to hackily tack my NFL picks onto this ode to 'Bocker basketball. So here we go.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 104-95-10

SAN DIEGO (-9) over San Francisco
NY GIANTS (-3) over Philadelphia
Cleveland (+1) over CINCINNATI
DALLAS (-6) over Washington
Houston (+2) over TENNESSEE
Jacksonville (+5) over INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City (even) over ST. LOUIS
MIAMI (-6) over Buffalo
TAMPA BAY (-6) over Detroit
Arizona (+1) over CAROLINA
New Orleans (+1) over BALTIMORE
SEATTLE (+7) over Atlanta
OAKLAND (-7) over Denver
NY Jets (+6) over PITTSBURGH
NEW ENGLAND (even) over Green Bay
Chicago (even) over MINNESOTA

And there you have it. I'm off to watch some Knicks basketball. For the first time in a long time.

NFL Picks Week Fourteen: In Which I Talk About John Lennon

Unless you decided to spend your free time under a rock yesterday, you probably heard that it was the 30th anniversary of John Lennon being shot to death outside the Dakota apartment building in New York City by an awfully disturbed individual named Mark David Chapman. Now, I'm pretty quick to point out that my favorite band of all time is The Beatles, without a doubt, and while I actually enjoy George Harrison's solo work the best of the Fab Four, Lennon's individual oeuvre is still fantastic, and his musical genius is clearly evident throughout The Beatles' musical arc.

I try not to be a sap on too regular a basis, but I spent most of yesterday listening to Lennon's later work -- Imagine, Double Fantasy, John Lennon/Plastic Ono Band -- on a loop for most of the afternoon because, well, if you watched ESPN for four minutes at any given time yesterday you were reminded that Lennon's death was first announced to the world by Howard Cosell during a Patriots-Dolphins game on Monday Night Football. ESPN put on a fairly interesting piece, which, bizarrely, didn't mention that New England's kicker that night, who was preparing for a game-winning kick as the news was announced, was the only Englishman in the game at the time. A written version of the story takes a much larger focus on Smith.

The most interesting thing for me about this entire thing is that the piece shows behind the scenes footage of Cosell debating with Frank Gifford on whether or not to reveal the news. In retrospect, I have difficulty finding it appropriate to announce the murder of a cultural icon during the midst of a football game, to say nothing of the bombastic tone of Cosell's voice at all times, but it's a fascinating moment both because of the news being announced and because of the remarkable contrast with today's media circuit. With the immediacy of 24-Hour News channels, the internet and, maybe most importantly, twitter, that kind of information would never be kept under wraps before falling in the lap of a sports announcer, regardless of how famous he is.

The contrast is almost staggering, particularly for someone who works in sports media and gets most of his advance warning at the trading deadline by following various reporters in the twittersphere. It's also interesting to note that Cosell and Lennon, despite coming from dramatically different ends of the social spectrum, were apparently quite good friends following an interview Lennon did while at a Rams game on Monday Night Football in 1974.



I bring this all up because, as someone who makes his bread in sports media, I find both the changes in media over the last 30 years and the intersection of sports and pop culture to be particularly interesting. And I also think it's interesting to note because in all likelihood, the combination of one major cultural pillar (Cosell) and a timeless cultural icon (Lennon) intersecting in such a dramatic way in such a dramatic moment is almost certain never to happen again.

I'd be absolutely astonished if it happened, say, this weekend. And speaking of which, let's do this whole "picks" thing.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 95-88-10

Indianapolis (-6) over TENNESSEE
NY Giants (-3) over MINNESOTA
Cleveland (+1) over BUFFALO
Green Bay (-7) over DETROIT
PITTSBURGH (-9) over Cincinnati
Tampa Bay (-3) over WASHINGTON
Atlanta (-8) over CAROLINA
Oakland (+5) over JACKSONVILLE
NEW ORLEANS (-10) over St. Louis
Seattle (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO
New England (-3) over CHICAGO
NY JETS (-6) over Miami
ARIZONA (+6) over Denver
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Kansas City
DALLAS (+4) over Philadelphia
Baltimore (-3) over HOUSTON

And that's all for this week. Enjoy your weekends.

NFL Picks Week Thirteen: In Which We Learn Oil Money Can Buy ANYTHING

One of the great things about this summer's 2010 FIFA World Cup was not just the inspiring and then heartbreaking performance of the U.S. team, but that it was an event uniting a continent and a nation with a history of racial and social tensions so profound, that putting on such a successful show for the world was an accomplishment in and of itself. While South Africa is now experiencing some issues filling its World Cup venues, the tournament itself was a tremendous and uplifting event for any fan of the beautiful game.

So with the decisions to be made for 2018 and 2022 today, it's good to see that FIFA had absolutely no interest whatsoever in maintaining that inspiring storyline. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that my personal preferences for each event -- that would be England in 2018 and the United States in 2022 -- would have had the same uplifting social impact that the Cup in South Africa did, but at least England is a nation with a soccer history as rich as any could be, as well as one that would be 52 years removed from its last turn as host by the time 2018 rolled around. In the case of the U.S., people can bash soccer fandom in this country all they want, but the blunt fact remains that the United States is still a vibrant, growing melting pot of numerous international cultures that all put a dramatic importance on the game. Include the fact that by 2022, the increasing Hispanic population will no doubt be a potent force in U.S. society, and that for the 2010 World Cup more tickets were bought by Americans than any other nationality, well, the U.S. seems like a pretty reasonable place to bring the World Cup back to.

Instead, however, the 2018 World Cup and the 2022 World Cup will be played in Russia and Qatar, respectively, proving once and for all that you just can't beat oil money. Now, I don't want to come off as bitter here, nor do I want to appear ignorant of the nation Qatar, which, yes, I did know existed, if for no other reason than because Northwestern has a campus there. But, regardless, there's no way around the fact that these are two countries feeding off petroleum, a source of energy the world is supposed to be weening itself off of, and the fact that either nation would otherwise be an unlikely candidate makes it seem almost obvious that some foul play might have been involved. To any impartial observer -- though I admit, I'm not one -- there are a number of concerns and questions to be asked. After all, Qatar is a country of less people than nearly every U.S. state and it happens to be smaller in size than Connecticut. In fact, only Delaware and Rhode Island have it beat on the minimization scale.

While some people might be pleased with the outcome of the vote, there's no avoiding the fact that Russia already has raised suspicions with its successful bid to host the 2014 Winter Olympics in Socchi, dubbed the "Gazprom games", and Qatar's utter lack of size (can it fit 10 world class soccer arenas and still have room for parking lots?), horrific summer temperatures (its average high in July is 115 degrees fahrenheit) and, uh, debatable soccer tradition, bring about several questions as to whether the nation can successfully host the event. The country will get its first measure when it hosts the 2011 AFC Asia Cup, but that seems to surely be on a different level.

Now, let's not get the wrong idea. Qatar is no primitive middle eastern backwater. It is extremely modern, with connections to several U.S. universities and progressive technology. But perhaps the biggest reason why it won is because it is, uh, rich. Really rich. Of course, most of this money comes from, yeah, oil. And as the rest of the country tries desperately to ween itself from what has been a useful, but destructive, source of energy, this raises enormous concerns when one considers the games are 12 years away and 70% of Qatar's government revenues come from petroleum. What happens if the money runs out? And also, how hot can the fans take? Qatar has announced that its stadiums will be outfitted with carbon-neutral solar systems that will lower the temperature inside the buildings by as much as 20 degrees celsius to maintain the comfort of players and fans. But just how viable is that?

Also, on a personal level, it's slightly unnerving that Qatar has announced it is "generous" enough to allow Israel to participate should it qualify, despite not formally recognizing the Israeli government. I suppose there is also the point that Israel could gain a measure of headway towards making peace with Arab nations by appearing in the games, but color me skeptical. It might have been more reasonable to host the games elsewhere.

I'm sure both hosts will pull off the job with little worry, but a host in 2018 such as England, Spain/Portugal or Belgium/Netherlands, or of course the U.S. in 2022, just seems like a more reasonable, and wholesome bet. But at this point, those two candidates are here to stay. We may as well accept it, even if we're so steamed about it that we can't even bring up Northwestern's totally amazing win over Georgia Tech Tuesday night.

And now to the other football. You know, our football. A sport that is not at all corrupt on any level.

I'm not sure how many people out there have gotten the chance to check out what may be the awesomest thing I've ever seen on the internet, but it's this doohickey. ESPN, ever the progressive digital purveyor, has created a simulator that shows you how the NFL playoff picture changes as you select each game's winner over the next five weeks. And it is just about as cool as it sounds. Now, I won't lie and tell you my picks may not have been slightly biased, nor are they particularly consistent since I came with a wholly different slate of teams the first time I did this last night, but regardless, it's a pretty sweet little gizmo. If you like football and have five minutes too much time on your hands, well, it's a sweet way to kill them.

And now that I'm done with all of my screeds, it's time for some picks.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 88-79-9

Houston (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
NY GIANTS (-7) over Washington
New Orleans (-7) over CINCINNATI
Chicago (-4) over DETROIT
GREEN BAY (-10) over San Francisco
Jacksonville (even) over TENNESSEE
KANSAS CITY (-9) over Denver
Cleveland (+5) over MIAMI
MINNESOTA (-6) over Buffalo
SAN DIEGO (-13) over Oakland
INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over Dallas
St. Louis (-4) over ARIZONA
SEATTLE (-6) over Carolina
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Atlanta
BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh
NY Jets (+4) over NEW ENGLAND

That's all for today. I'm about as tired from writing that as you are from reading it. Happy football everyone.

NFL Picks Week Twelve: In Which I Eat Turkey

Last year I discovered something magical, which is that I absolutely, positively, completely, entirely, 100 % hate when the Giants play on Thanksgiving. Now, I love watching the Giants play, so why would I not want to combine that with what is, easily, my absolutely favorite holiday?

Well, last year, I learned the reason was pretty simple.

The Giants played in the final matchup of the NFL's annual Turkey Day triple-header with a visit to Denver against the Broncos. What resulted is that Big Blue, in the midst of the playoff race, laid an absolutely massive egg at Invesco Field, accelerating the downfall of a once promising season that started 5-0 and ended 8-8.

And perhaps worst of all: it ruined my fucking day.

Thanksgiving, you see, for me is an amazing 24 hours. You have very few requirements for Thanksgiving and they're almost all related to sitting on a couch, eating and watching football. What the hell else could be better? Now, I will admit, of the various types of meat or fowl available, turkey is hardly my favorite. Unless it's cooked by someone exceptionally talented, there is a tendency for the bird to wind up dry and unsatisfying, but fortunately, there are newer, more exciting remedies for that if the usual pooling of gravy doesn't do the job.

But by and large the combination of food, family, friends and football all seem to add up to the absolute greatest holiday an American can experience, and I generally love every minute of it. Last year, however, Big Blue's embarrassing display took my favorite day of the year and soured it to almost absurd lengths. No food, family, friend or other football game could have made that fun. And so this season, when the schedule came out and I saw that the Giants were nowhere to be found on the third Thursday of November I was as relieved as can be.


Patriots-Lions, Saints-Cowboys, Bengals-Jets. Several exciting teams, no particular allegiances other than "anyone who plays the Cowboys" and nine hours of pure food and enjoyment. And maybe a distraction from the Giants frustration "Slide rule" loss.

On with the picks.

Last week: 11-4-1
Season: 79-72-9

New England (-7) over DETROIT
New Orleans (-4) over DALLAS
NY JETS (-9) over Cincinnati
NY GIANTS (-8) over Jacksonville
Green Bay (+2) over ATLANTA
Pittsburgh (-7) over BUFFALO
CLEVELAND (even) over Carolina
Minnesota (+2) over WASHINGTON
HOUSTON (even) over Tennessee
OAKLAND (even) over Miami
Kansas City (+1) over SEATTLE
CHICAGO (+4) over Philadelphia
St. Louis (+4) over DENVER
BALTIMORE (-8) over Tampa Bay
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over San Diego
San Francisco (+1) over ARIZONA

That's all for this week. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

NFL Picks Week Eleven: In Which I Go Back to Chicago

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this weekend I will be making my first visit to Chicago in more than three years, which, to put it mildly, is far too long. New York is my home and the greatest city in the world, but my four years in Evanston, Illinois and in close proximity of the City of Broad Shoulders will always give Chicago a fond place in my heart. This week it will likely cost me the chance to see most of this weekend's NFL action -- though don't worry, my flight lands in time for me to comfortable catch kickoff of Giants-Eagles --but it's a worthwhile endeavor.

And why, you ask?

Well, as you can see the marquee on Chicago's Wrigley Field was painstakingly painted Northwestern Purple for this Saturday's Northwestern-Illinois game, which will be the first college football game played in the friendly confines in more than 70 years. Squeezing a regulation football field inside has proved something of a challenge, and in some cases, like the distance from the end of the east end zone to the right field bleachers, it is almost laughable as to how tight the game will be played. Since the last college and professional football games were played in Wrigley club seats have been added to the field level which have squeezed the area a bit. The orientation Northwestern seems to be going with is a bit odd considering that the field ran north to south when the Bears played in Wrigley, rather than west to east. Looking at artists' renditions, however, it seems clear officials anticipated this considering they didn't bother drawing uprights in the east end zone in their early depictions.

Clearly it was much easier to build a hockey rink there, even if they had to come up with ice.

Either way, the field is finally starting to come into shape and I can't help but be outlandishly excited about it. Or at least buy all the crap merchandise that's being churned out for the occasion. Personally, I opted not for the ephemeral, but for the eminently reusable Northwestern football jersey. I chose Dan Persa even though I know he will be out with a torn achilles after spearheading last week's stunning upset of No. 13 Iowa, but he'll be back in full force next season to lead NU to its inevitable 2011 BCS National Championship. It's totally gonna happen. Just wait for it.

All around the excitement seems to be building. Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald, a uniquely social-media savvy leader, has been tweeting pictures of the field, Northwestern's practices there, and the cramped locker room as the game reaches kickoff. A plan to have the players ride the Chicago El from Evanston to the Addison stop on the Red Line has been nixed unfortunately, but the blow of losing that novelty has been softened by the presence of a much bigger one. ESPN Game Day has been rumored to be coming to Northwestern several times in the past few years, but each time was just that. A rumor.

This weekend, ESPN just couldn't help itself with the prospect of having that Wrigley Field marquee in the background of its shots for four hours, however, so at long last Game Day is here. I won't be joining the legions of students that are busing down from campus at 4 a.m., but I will be making my way there sometime in the morning to scope out the scene and pretend I'm in college again. After that, Northwestern has set up several areas to tailgate with fellow alumni or buy food around Wrigley, and I will be checking out the whole place.

Hopefully I will be sober and energized enough by the time kickoff comes around at 2:30 p.m. CT that I'm not completely out of it, but something tells me the opportunity to be a part of a once in a lifetime event like this will make it easy to keep myself alert. I've been tremendously excited about this game for months since it became official. And as the clock finally starts to wind down before my 9 a.m. flight to O'Hare tomorrow, I can hardly contain the excitement of a purple-drenched football weekend in Chicago with a host of college friends who live there or are flocking in to town. It's almost enough to forget that there are professional games the next day.

Almost.

And with that, here are this week's almost certain to be incorrect picks. On a side note, if some of you are wondering why I haven't mentioned the Giants' loss to Dallas last week, it's because I've convinced myself it didn't happen. On with the show.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 68-68-8

Chicago (+1) over MIAMI
NY Giants (+2.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo (+6) over CINCINNATI
DALLAS (-7) over Detroit
TENNESSEE (-7) over Washington
KANSAS CITY (-8) over Arizona
Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA
NY JETS (-7) over Houston
PITTSBURGH (-8) over Oakland
Baltimore (-10) over CAROLINA
JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Cleveland
ST. LOUIS (+3) over Atlanta
NEW ORLEANS (-12) over Seattle
Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Indianapolis
SAN DIEGO (-10) over Denver

There you have it. Enjoy the games. I'm off to college.